Think NBC erred with Jay Leno? Think again.

By Barry Garron

Below this post, there's one by my colleague, Ray Richmond, about the Jay Leno/Conan O'Brien controversy. Ray blasts NBC -- and to a lesser degree, O'Brien -- for going through with a deal that will install O'Brien as the new host of "Tonight Show" on June 1 and make current host Leno a free agent.

Ray correctly points out that Leno is the ratings leader and a team player and it is far from certain that O'Brien will be able to keep the show in first place.

To a large extent, this is criticism made with the benefit of hindsight. When NBC struck the deal with Leno and O'Brien, the late-night talk show picture was very different than it is today.

Five years ago, ABC's Jimmy Kimmel and CBS' Craig Ferguson were barely blips on any network's radar. There was just Leno on NBC, Letterman on CBS and O'Brien, by then a proven talent and widely considered to be the next great talk show host. CBS would have loved to sign O'Brien to back up Letterman and ABC could have used him to establish its own hip late-night talk show.

NBC, keenly aware of O'Brien's talents, did not want to see him jump to another network. But how could NBC hold on to him and also be respectful of Leno?

The network wisely struck a deal that guaranteed Leno five more years as "Tonight" host before he would have to hand the show over to O'Brien. It recognized Leno's strength as a talk show host but also rewarded O'Brien's patience. And it guaranteed that the franchise would be placed in the hands of a proven, younger talent capable of bringing in new and younger viewers.

With less than a year to go, it's still a good deal. O'Brien is a more seasoned talk show host and has had a lot of time to think about and prepare for his new job.

But what about Leno? Will his forced retirement come back to haunt NBC? Probably not. There's really no place for him to go. ABC has Kimmel, whose ratings have improved and who is popular with a younger demographic. CBS still has Letterman, as well as decent bench strength with Ferguson. As for Fox, even if it was able to wrest the time for a late night talk show from its affiliates, it would seek a younger, hipper host.

In short, Leno's options are not nearly as spectacular as many make them out to be. Though he is a terrific talent, a wonderful human being and a hugely popular comedian, he is not likely to be snapped up by a competitor. In fact, his best option may be to sign with NBC for a series of primetime specials.

Should O'Brien have volunteered, for the good of NBC, to give Leno more time, as Ray suggested? Would you? O'Brien has been more than patient and has earned his shot at hosting the "Tonight" show. What's more, as much as I've enjoyed Leno all these years, I think O'Brien will do just fine.

Comments

[James]

Are you absolutely insane? For NBC to remove Leno in favor of Conan is kinda like Fox taking American Idol off the air to make room for So you think you can dance. Leno can move to ABC and I hope he does and truthfully, i think this could be a great thing for all of late night with three different options.

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