We now know when Leno's getting the heave-ho

With NBC's announcement today during the Television Critics Association press tour that Jay Leno will be doing his final edition of "The Tonight Show" on May 29, 2009 to make way for new host Conan O'Brien on the following Monday (June 1), I guess it's really and truly official. I thought maybe something might happen to make NBC change its mind, but no. It's gonna be the Nobody But Conan network and there is no turning back. Maybe this was clear for a while to everyone but me. It surely wouldn't be the first time that was the case.

It's just that last time I checked, Jay was still in first place in late night and the network was still raking in the dough. This dynamic hasn't much changed since Leno took over from Johnny Carson a bit more than 16 years ago. Obviously, NBC is covering its butt for the immediate future, given that Leno is 58 years old and O'Brien a mere 45. But forcing a guy who has long been a timeslot champion -- and who is the prototype team player, never above pressing the flesh with affiliates or doing the necessary grunt work -- to have the ax hovering over his head as a five-year lame duck is simply insane. Also cruel and absurd.

Yes, I get it, NBC honcho Jeff Zucker had to do things this way or risk losing Conan to the competition (presumably ABC or Fox). Zucker, and NBC co-chairs Ben Silverman and Marc Graboff, have in O'Brien a host who's hip and college crowd-friendly, whereas Leno is by comparison the guy hustling a buck in the Catskills. The demographics are far tastier if O'Brien can match Leno's impressive run, or even come close. But that's a mighty big "if."

The joke is that the NBC execs think they still have a chance of keeping Leno in-house in another job, or at least profess this to be the case publicly. Good luck on that one, peacock. It would be akin to a guy agreeing to live in the spare bedroom following the divorce after his wife jilted him to take up with a younger man.

The truth is that there's hardly a guarantee Conan will catch on with the mainstream audience with the set-your-watch reliability of the steady Jay. I actually don't believe he will. The far greater likelihood is that Leno -- should he go to ABC, or Fox, or Spike, or wherever -- can count on the majority of his fans following him. I have to believe that "Tonight" is about personality more than format, and that people can be made to get in the habit of pushing the "7" on their remote as easily as they do the "4."

So make no mistake, this is a major roll of the dice for NBC, which is staking its cash-cow franchise on a goofball cut-up whom many consider an acquired taste. I happen to like O'Brien a lot, and I'm not even (gasp) in the 18-49 demographic anymore. (I've actually receded back to age 17 and look forward to my senior year in high school beginning in September.) I thought Conan did some of the greatest off-the-cuff work I've ever seen on television during the WGA strike. He's a very funny, smart, talented guy. But I'm just not sure he's an 11:35 p.m. guy.

I also to some degree fault O'Brien for sparking Leno's long march into oblivion. He didn't have to agree to any of this. He could have said, "Thanks, but no thanks, I can't do that to a colleague I respect" and headed for the door. Instead, he signed on to the program, for which Leno can't be too forgiving. It's an excruciating humilation for a guy who doesn't seem to deserve it. But I'm getting a strong sense that after the dust has cleared next year, Jay is going to wind up in better shape than anyone.

Comments

[Chris]

I take slight offense to the notion that somehow Conan is not being an NBC team player by not stepping aside so Leno can stay on as TONIGHT host a little while longer. First of all, this was the decision of the NBC regime all the way. Business is business, and eventhough placing Conan in the TONIGHT slot is simply the best creative move NBC could make, ratings trumps all. And still, NBC made the move. What does that tell us about how they really feel about Leno?

Please remember that Leno himself, in 1992, was not a team player; otherwise, he would have ceded TONIGHT to Letterman, the one move that NBC truly wishes they had a do-over on.

Leno will land on his feet. But his having to leave TONIGHT? Karma.

[roy]

Lest we forget Leno's former manager, who may actually have been Satan, planted an untrue story in the NY Post in the late 80s saying NBC was considering dumping Carson for Leno. Leno claims he had no knowledge of it, but they got what they ultimately wanted.

My point is, don't rag on Conan for angling for the chair the way he did. They gave Leno five years notice fergoshsake.

[Mike]

I'm with the other posters. Conan is actually behaving far more graciously than Leno did when he was angling for The Tonight Show. And let's not forget Jay's hiring of scabs a few months ago. The man isn't exactly a saint. I also think you greatly overestimate Leno's appeal. He's a perfectly good talk show host, but do you really think he's got legions of fans out there who think he's hysterically funny and are willing to follow him anywhere? More than likely he's just what the 11:30 audience considers the best of a bunch of lousy options.

[Lenni]

Being a huge Conan fan (I can take or leave Leno as a host) I must confess to having serious doubts whether Conan can get the job done (and keep the #1 slot) at 11:30. A huge part of Conan's appeal is the "I can't believe they're doing that!" free-wheeling vibe of his show (including recurring characters like Triumph, the masturbating bear and Nascar-drivin', gun-totin' Jesus--none of which I suspect will go over well with the current Leno audience).

To ready the Conan show for 11:30 they've already altered the show's opening format and frankly, it sucks. Instead of the usual short monologue followed by brief music while Conan moseyed over to the desk to do a few scripted (or filmed) bits, the top of the show is now a seemingly endless monologue where they now roll the filmed bits while he's still standing center stage telling jokes. It's very awkard and eats up almost 1/4 of the show.

The core of Conan's appeal is what makes his show work at 12:30 and what I suspect will be a disaster at 11:30: the gleeful cheesiness of bad gags, cheap props and often in-very-poor-taste (and far from politically correct) humor.

Or NBC can get rid of all that to make Conan more palatable to the 11:30 crowd. Don't get me wrong...I think Conan is a huge talent and can survive without the aforementioned material as a witty, hip, urban guy who doesn't take the whole "showbiz" thing seriously.

Unfortunately, that guy is already on CBS at 11:30.

[Charlie Barrett]

Jay Leno is a very, very talented man.

I had the privilege of serving as NBC's publicist for Johnny Carson and TONIGHT in the 1980s when Jay was chosen as the guest host(after the Joan Rivers debacle) on Monday nights before becoming the permanent host of the late night staple on NBC with Johnny's departure in May 1992.

Watch for Jay to join another network in late night...my guess would be ABC...and if so, he will more than likely give NBC and Mr O'Brien a good trouncing if he goes up opposite TONIGHT!