Past Deadline

Think NBC erred with Jay Leno? Think again.

By Barry Garron

Below this post, there's one by my colleague, Ray Richmond, about the Jay Leno/Conan O'Brien controversy. Ray blasts NBC -- and to a lesser degree, O'Brien -- for going through with a deal that will install O'Brien as the new host of "Tonight Show" on June 1 and make current host Leno a free agent.

Ray correctly points out that Leno is the ratings leader and a team player and it is far from certain that O'Brien will be able to keep the show in first place.

To a large extent, this is criticism made with the benefit of hindsight. When NBC struck the deal with Leno and O'Brien, the late-night talk show picture was very different than it is today.

Five years ago, ABC's Jimmy Kimmel and CBS' Craig Ferguson were barely blips on any network's radar. There was just Leno on NBC, Letterman on CBS and O'Brien, by then a proven talent and widely considered to be the next great talk show host. CBS would have loved to sign O'Brien to back up Letterman and ABC could have used him to establish its own hip late-night talk show.

NBC, keenly aware of O'Brien's talents, did not want to see him jump to another network. But how could NBC hold on to him and also be respectful of Leno?

The network wisely struck a deal that guaranteed Leno five more years as "Tonight" host before he would have to hand the show over to O'Brien. It recognized Leno's strength as a talk show host but also rewarded O'Brien's patience. And it guaranteed that the franchise would be placed in the hands of a proven, younger talent capable of bringing in new and younger viewers.

With less than a year to go, it's still a good deal. O'Brien is a more seasoned talk show host and has had a lot of time to think about and prepare for his new job.

But what about Leno? Will his forced retirement come back to haunt NBC? Probably not. There's really no place for him to go. ABC has Kimmel, whose ratings have improved and who is popular with a younger demographic. CBS still has Letterman, as well as decent bench strength with Ferguson. As for Fox, even if it was able to wrest the time for a late night talk show from its affiliates, it would seek a younger, hipper host.

In short, Leno's options are not nearly as spectacular as many make them out to be. Though he is a terrific talent, a wonderful human being and a hugely popular comedian, he is not likely to be snapped up by a competitor. In fact, his best option may be to sign with NBC for a series of primetime specials.

Should O'Brien have volunteered, for the good of NBC, to give Leno more time, as Ray suggested? Would you? O'Brien has been more than patient and has earned his shot at hosting the "Tonight" show. What's more, as much as I've enjoyed Leno all these years, I think O'Brien will do just fine.

We now know when Leno's getting the heave-ho

With NBC's announcement today during the Television Critics Association press tour that Jay Leno will be doing his final edition of "The Tonight Show" on May 29, 2009 to make way for new host Conan O'Brien on the following Monday (June 1), I guess it's really and truly official. I thought maybe something might happen to make NBC change its mind, but no. It's gonna be the Nobody But Conan network and there is no turning back. Maybe this was clear for a while to everyone but me. It surely wouldn't be the first time that was the case.

It's just that last time I checked, Jay was still in first place in late night and the network was still raking in the dough. This dynamic hasn't much changed since Leno took over from Johnny Carson a bit more than 16 years ago. Obviously, NBC is covering its butt for the immediate future, given that Leno is 58 years old and O'Brien a mere 45. But forcing a guy who has long been a timeslot champion -- and who is the prototype team player, never above pressing the flesh with affiliates or doing the necessary grunt work -- to have the ax hovering over his head as a five-year lame duck is simply insane. Also cruel and absurd.

Yes, I get it, NBC honcho Jeff Zucker had to do things this way or risk losing Conan to the competition (presumably ABC or Fox). Zucker, and NBC co-chairs Ben Silverman and Marc Graboff, have in O'Brien a host who's hip and college crowd-friendly, whereas Leno is by comparison the guy hustling a buck in the Catskills. The demographics are far tastier if O'Brien can match Leno's impressive run, or even come close. But that's a mighty big "if."

The joke is that the NBC execs think they still have a chance of keeping Leno in-house in another job, or at least profess this to be the case publicly. Good luck on that one, peacock. It would be akin to a guy agreeing to live in the spare bedroom following the divorce after his wife jilted him to take up with a younger man.

The truth is that there's hardly a guarantee Conan will catch on with the mainstream audience with the set-your-watch reliability of the steady Jay. I actually don't believe he will. The far greater likelihood is that Leno -- should he go to ABC, or Fox, or Spike, or wherever -- can count on the majority of his fans following him. I have to believe that "Tonight" is about personality more than format, and that people can be made to get in the habit of pushing the "7" on their remote as easily as they do the "4."

So make no mistake, this is a major roll of the dice for NBC, which is staking its cash-cow franchise on a goofball cut-up whom many consider an acquired taste. I happen to like O'Brien a lot, and I'm not even (gasp) in the 18-49 demographic anymore. (I've actually receded back to age 17 and look forward to my senior year in high school beginning in September.) I thought Conan did some of the greatest off-the-cuff work I've ever seen on television during the WGA strike. He's a very funny, smart, talented guy. But I'm just not sure he's an 11:35 p.m. guy.

I also to some degree fault O'Brien for sparking Leno's long march into oblivion. He didn't have to agree to any of this. He could have said, "Thanks, but no thanks, I can't do that to a colleague I respect" and headed for the door. Instead, he signed on to the program, for which Leno can't be too forgiving. It's an excruciating humilation for a guy who doesn't seem to deserve it. But I'm getting a strong sense that after the dust has cleared next year, Jay is going to wind up in better shape than anyone.

Conan Uses a New Beard to Save Face, While Ferguson Steers Clear of Whiskers and Laughs

'LATE NIGHT WITH CONAN O'BRIEN' (NBC)

'THE LATE LATE SHOW WITH CRAIG FERGUSON' (CBS)

(Thursday Jan. 3, 12:37-1:37 a.m.)

It was difficult to tell which of the two late night warriors was operating without a writing staff on Wednesday night as both Conan O'Brien and Craig Ferguson emerged from their strike-imposed two-month hiatus. Ferguson's the one without his writers, right? C'mon, right? No? Well, then, the first strike era battle in the 12:30 a.m. wars goes to spontaneity over preparation, which ain't exactly destined to brighten the spirits of the Writers Guild of America. O'Brien was newly bearded, rested and mostly ready; Ferguson was clean shaven, restless and painfully dopey. But while O'Brien showed off some genuine comic dexterity, neither guy exactly knocked it out of the park.

The naturally savvy and quick-footed Conan did all he could considering his lack of a writing staff, vamping through an alternately witty and earnest monologue that both seriously addressed the plight of the striking scribes ("I want to make this clear: I support their cause. These are very talented, very creative people who work extremely hard and I believe what they're asking for is fair") and riffed on the void in our lives created by the walkout ("With all of the late night shows off the air, Americans have been forced to read books and occasionally even speak to one another, which has been horrifying"). He was much more freewheeling by obvious necessity, and Conan mostly used his lack of a net to good self-deprecating effect -- though the pair of timed spins of his wedding ring on his desk was one too many.

We also got the feeling from watching him that O'Brien was expending a tremendous amount of nervous energy that will be difficult to sustain as the days stretch into weeks. It's tough to imagine his being able to endlessly riff on how funny his show isn't due to the walkout without it becoming a self-fulfilling prophesy. Moreover, if the level of guest doesn't rise substantially from night one's Bob Saget, unknown comedian Dwayne Perkins and who-the-heck-are-they musical guests Robert Gordon and Chris Spedding, don't count on Conan's being able to hold onto much beyond his most loyal viewers while the strike rages on.

Yet whatever problems O'Brien had were miniscule compared with Ferguson, who came across as positively amateurish while making the unfortunate decision to go without guests on the first night back. Nearly his entire schtick surrounded the idea that despite having his writers by his side, the show was still somehow lame. And darn it if that assessment wasn't dead on. "I make this pledge to the people of America!" the Scottish comedian announced during his opening. "We...will...not...be...funnier!!!!!!" Consider the pledge met.

That kickoff monologue seemed to stretch nearly as long as has the strike itself, with the host appearing to repeat the same lines without letup. We found out that during the break, Ferguson learned how to ski. Badly. We also discovered that he grew his own strike beard and shaved it off and then grew it again and shaved it again -- and that, oh man, it's good to be back. A series of dashed-off bits (Craig's a buck-toothed, talk show-hosting Prince Charles! Craig's a Scottish shepherd talking to a stuffed lamb!) filled the time, mostly driving home the message that the show wasn't just unfunny but purposely so. It certainly isn't that Ferguson is himself untalented or lacking in charm. So let's assume for the sake of argument that his writing staff has reverted to off-season form.

Score this first night: Improv 1, Writers 0.

You can also check out my colleague Barry Garron's reviews of the returns of David Letterman, Jay Leno and Jimmy Kimmel right here.